Projecting JT's First Season: An Analysis of Comparables

With all the season previews coming out, there is plenty of conjecture on projecting what John Tavares will produce in his rookie season. While there are many factors that will contribute to Tavares' ability to produce, we will break down some recent players with comparable statistics, achievements, and expectations.

The Last 5 Number 1 Overall NHL Entry Draft Picks
2004 Alexander Ovechkin: Franchise player, superstar. Potential generational talent.
1st NHL Season Stats-81GP 52G 54A 106P

2005 Sidney Crosby: Stanley Cup Champion Captain, see above as well. Face of the NHL.
1st NHL Season Stats-81GP 39G 63A 102P

2006 Erik Johnson: Tough comparable due to defensemen developing at a slower rate. Potential stud, has all the tools.
1st NHL Season Stats-69GP 5G 28A 33P

2007 Patrick Kane: Calder Trophy winner. Despite recent issues, Kane is an offensive dynamo and a potential franchise player.
1st NHL Season Stats-82GP 21G 51A 72P

2008 Steven Stamkos: Struggles in the first half could be attributed to organizational chaos. Finished with 19 points in his final 20 games and was very impressive for Team Canada at the World Championships.
1st NHL Season Stats-79GP 23G 23A 46P

The Last 5 OHL Scoring Champs
2003-04 Corey Locke: Had 114 goals and 269 points in his last two years of junior. Will join his 3rd organization this year. A size concern has been the issue.
1st NHL Season Stats-N/A 1GP 0P

2004-05 Corey Perry: Emerging star keeps getting better. NHL numbers have increased every season.
1st NHL Season Stats-56GP 13G 12A 25P

2005-06 Rob Schremp: Former 1st rounder has produced at the AHL level. Got in 4 NHL games this season and produced 3 assists. Make or break year for him, consistency is an issue.
1st NHL Season Stats- N/A 7GP 3A

2006-07 Patrick Kane: See above. Back to back 70 point seasons to start a career.
1st NHL Season Stats-82GP 21G 51A 72P

2007-08 Justin Azevedo: Jumped from 56 points to 124 points in his 4th OHL season. Produced 36 points in 49 AHL games. Size is a concern but could be a solid minor pro/organizational player.
1st NHL Season Stats-yet to play an NHL game

In analysis of these players and the talent that surrounds Tavares, I would estimate that his numbers will fall somewhere between Kane (high end) and Stamkos (low end).

Tavares Country prediction: 28G 38A 66P.

Lighthouse Links

Links from todays hearing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/05/sports/hockey/05islanders.html

http://islanders.nhl.com/team/app/?service=page&page=NewsPage&articleid=463443

http://islanders.nhl.com/team/app/?service=page&page=NewsPage&articleid=463437

http://www.newsday.com/long-island/nassau/many-voices-chime-in-on-lighthouse-plan-1.1347843

http://www.newsday.com/sports/hockey/islanders/bettman-delights-crowd-with-lighthouse-support-1.1349058

http://www.newsday.com/columnists/other-columnists/islanders-fans-score-big-at-town-board-meeting-1.1349010

http://inthefade.tumblr.com/post/155908647/if-you-build-it

Ace A Key For JT

Tomorrow is one of the most important days in Islander history. There will be a meeting of utmost importance with regards to the Lighthouse project, the key to the future of NHL hockey on Long Island. The Isles will hold a pre-meeting rally and along for the ride is one of their most important pieces of the present and future, Josh Bailey.

Bailey will also loom as a big influence on the rookie season of John Tavares. The two were teammates on the OHL team at the 2007 ADT challenge and are looking to be the 1-2 punch up the middle that the Isles have lacked in recent years. Bailey took Tavares under his wing at the teams summer mini-camp, the 19-year old “veteran” stole plenty of the storylines with his leadership and increased strength.

It will be crucial for Bailey to take some heat off Tavares on the ice this season. Bailey finished the season with a respectable 25 points (8 G. 17A.) and flashed some brilliant playmaking and hockey sense. He will need to improve upon those numbers to take opposing team defenses’ heat off of Tavares and continue to emerge as a young leader on this team. These two could be very dangerous on the power play, add in Okposo, Streit, and Weight and it gives Islanders fans a great reason for optimism this season and for “Ace” and “JT” many seasons to come.

Tomorrow, Lighthouse meeting round-up.